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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."